National Flood Risk Assessment 2 Update (NaFRA2)
NaFRA2 reveals 6.3 million properties at risk of flooding in England, with surface water affecting 43% more properties than previously assessed.
The latest NaFRA update released on 28th January 2025 brings with it significant changes and for the first time accounts for the latest climate change projections when assessing flood risk.
What is the National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA2)?
NAFRA2 is an updated flood risk assessment model developed by the Environment Agency in England, building on the previous update from 2018 and the original assessment from 2014. The data informs government agencies, local authorities, and communities in planning and enhancing flood resilience measures.
Key Takeaways
- An increased number of areas are now considered at risk, meaning some locations that were once outside flood zones may now require further consideration including Flood Risk Assessments (FRAs)
- 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding by rivers, the sea or surface water
- With current climate change predictions, 1 in 4 properties in England will be in areas at risk of flooding by mid-century
- There are 48% fewer properties in areas at medium risk, many of which are now considered to be in high-risk areas
- 4.6 million properties are in areas at risk of flooding from surface water — a 43% increase from the previous assessment
NaFRA vs NaFRA2 - What Are the Differences?
Increase of Locations Being Considered at Risk
The new NaFRA shows that around 6.3 million properties are now at risk of flooding, versus the previous figure of 5.2 million and then 5.7 million. When considering climate change projections, the total number of properties at risk is expected to increase to 8 million or around 1 in every 4 properties. “The Environment Agency stress that the increase in properties considered at risk does not reflect a real-world increase in risk,” but rather reflects improved understanding through better data, modelling and technology.
Surface Water Flooding
There are now 3 times as many properties at high risk of flooding from surface water than from rivers and the sea. Around 4.6 million properties are at risk from surface water flooding — a 43% increase from previous assessments. Over one-quarter of properties in areas at high flood risk from surface water flooding are in London (29.9%) — nearly a third of a million — 319,800.
River and Sea Flooding
Approximately 2.4 million properties are at risk from river and sea flooding. There is an 88% increase in properties classified at the highest risk level.
Climate Change Information
The climate change projections integrated into NaFRA2 are derived from the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), developed by the Met Office.
NaFRA & Housing Targets
According to the 2023 Land Use Statistics, approximately 10.4% of England’s land area falls within Flood Zone 3 (excluding flood defences). As a result, the amount of land available for development that is not affected by flood risk could decrease, adding further pressure to the government’s ambitious housing target.
What Does This Mean for My Development?
With so much change in the mapping and data, there is a greater need to understand the national and local policies that exist to regulate appropriate development in flood-affected areas. Those policies can be acted upon effectively whilst promoting appropriate mitigation techniques to support development.
Flood risk is complex, policy is intricate and disparate. Working with experts to advise, inform and mitigate flood risk is important for planning, operation of the development and insurance.